Monday, April 30, 2012

The EoT argument

Typical EOT ("End of Timer") argument:

Global financial assets, as a group, will be more valuable in 20-30 years than they are today.

This assumption is very unlikely to be true.

Why?

We are living through an era of decline and turbulence.

The global system is failing and the magnitude, scale, and frequency of future disruptions (due to inevitable financial, environmental, etc. trends) will be greater than anything we have ever experienced historically.

As a result, it’s very unlikely that global scale financial assets will be more valuable in 20-30 years than they are today.

Impeccable logic.  Assume the consequent, throw in some assumptions ("inevitable trends"!!) that already prove what is to be proven, then BAM!! Q.E.D.

Dear Readers...whenever you see the word "inevitable" please raise your Bovine Scatology meters (in classic "Spinal Tap" style) to 11 before concluding what you just read was either true and/or informative.

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