Thursday, June 15, 2006

You may now release your seatbelts...

An incredible couple of weeks.

As Yoda would say "Much to learn the Fed still has" regarding its ability to jaw-bone (its only real power...the discount rate is not really as important as it once was) and "manage expectations", whatever that means.

The volatility was palpable. On every utterance of BB or one of his merry men (no disrespect to Janice Yellen), the markets would obligingly trail up or down, depending on some form of tea leaf reading concoction of whether or not the remarks were bullish or bearish...and, of course, all the financial publications went along their merry way in reporting direct causalities from a single remark or the rally of a single stock.

The dollar has made some nice gains, much to the chagrin of all the "experts" who so dearly love their graphs and equations that make conclusions based on linear models...this leads to that which leads to the other much hogwash and one would think someone in those positions would have read Von Mises by now and refused to EVER say the dreaded words "all conditions remaining the same, we should see further declines"

Not to say the skies are blue, as we will likely experience some choppyness...but I expect a safe landing come december. The statistics are good, Liquidity improves, and I have never seen more coordination between the Central Banks of the industrialized nations.