Friday, October 23, 2009

Wonderful interview on Charlie Rose

Found here.

Lee Kuan Yew, founding father of Singapore, and Mr. Rose discuss (inter alia) China and other issues.

I disagree with Mr. Yew. More extrapolating current Chinese "growth" figures (I use quotations because there is simply no way to verify any of the figures released by the CCP.) Even if the GDP figures coming from China were true, export-driven growth dependent on raw materials without security guarantees in the areas of interest will be difficult.

The only thing fueling China's growth is China's purchases dollar assets in the effort to depreciate their own currency.

China Construction Bank reports lower NPLs and higher profits (this after higher profits of 50% in 2007, and 34% in 2008). It appears there is no mechansims for the CCP to acknowledge weakness or failure among its business units. This lack of transparency makes the prospect of analyzing the true position of China impossible, and I submit there are cracks in the firmament.

This will not end well for the Paper Dragon. 8% growth in one of the worst economic events this century. ..Right. Record profits for its financial institutions...Sure.

Look for scandals and (unfortunately) executions.