Monday, August 28, 2006

More volatility as uncertainty increases...

...which seems like a tautology, of course.

Here we are in an environment with massive corporate earnings, a (still)favorable cost of capital, a humming, vibrant economy (which on a structural level, SarbOx notwhithstanding, is still the most adaptative in the world), and yet there are many prognosticators out there who believe that the current global conditions (massive political instability) will continue AT THE SAME RATE THEY HAVE BEEN DETERIORATING.

"Ceterus Paribus"...but that never happens, does it?

These are the same people who think the housing market will drop by 80%, but will never say the stock market will continue its historically near-certain 10% gain year on year.

It is all so reminiscent of the movie "The Third Man" wher Orson Wells states (I am paraphrasing) that "200 year of constant internecine and intra-country strife produced the rennaiscance...and 200 years of constant peace in Switzerland produced the cookoo clock".

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Uncertainty, uncertainty, Oh my!!

As I have stated many times on this site, I am bullish on equities for the remainder of the year. We should see continued "volatility" until October, at which point the upward surge should be pronounced.

The usual hackademic suspects have emerged from the bear caves and proclaimed the end of the world. The old "economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions" comes to mind...

Stagflation is another meme making the "WHAT IS THE SINGULAR CAUSE OF THE COMING COLLAPSE" rounds.