Monday, February 06, 2012


...capitulation is never a good sign, no matter what bias (bearish/bullish/neutral) you have. The next two months look set for a return of volatility.

Strategists at the biggest banks are capitulating on their bearish
forecasts after the best start to a year for global stocks since 1994
and gains of more than 7 percent in emerging-market currencies.
Just two weeks after saying that investors should “remain cautious,”
Larry Hatheway, the chief economist at UBS AG (UBSN), raised his
recommendations on global shares and high-yield bonds in a Jan. 23
note to customers entitled, “Wrong, but not too late.” Royal Bank of
Scotland Group Plc (RBS), and Benoit Anne, the global head of
emerging-markets strategy at Societe Generale (GLE) SA, said their
estimates for developing nations were proven wrong.

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