...to make a prediction when the outcome is inevitable. When I and many others warned of this fundamental problem with the Euro area in general (to say nothing of the "unique" history of Europe during epochs of financial distress) years ago, the counter-argument typically devolved into new-age progressive nonsense. Treaties in Europe average about 7 years historically...and the precipitating factor has overwhelmingly been economic stress (the causes of which vary, from Church monopoly to famine to our modern industrial "recessions"). As I have said before, the Euro area has had a good run of peace for an unprecedented amount of time.
June 20 (Daily Mail) -- EUROPE'S single currency is 'almost
certain' to break up within the next five years as a direct
result of the Greek debt crisis, international financial
experts warned last night.
They said Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone as
early as 2013, with weak economies such as Portugal and Ireland
following in its wake.
The bleak forecast, from the Centre for Economics and
Business Research, came as European finance ministers gathered
in Luxembourg to thrash out plans for another huge bail-out to
save the Greek economy from bankruptcy.
There were warnings last night that Britain may have to
donate another Pounds 1billion to help the Greeks.
Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, said at
the weekend that the Greek crisis threatened at least five
other EU economies: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and
Spain. Eurozone finance ministers were last night expected to
release the latest tranche of the Pounds 95billion bailout for
Greece agreed last year. The Pounds 11billion payment will keep
its economy going for a few more weeks.