Monday, February 22, 2010

The instruments change...

...but the musical score remains the same.

(A more philosophical post)

Increased economic pressure across the globe is causing sovereigns to make difficult choices regarding long-term goals.

We also note that China has announced it will actively pursue maritime responsibilities in defending its trade routes, primarily in the Indian Ocean basin. This, combined with China becoming Saudi Arabia's largest oil customer has sent intellectuals into a tizzy regarding the long-term position of the United States.

Scenarios describing war and doom abound (most of this can be ascribed to the current Schadenfreude; bad news begets bad news). I have not been subtle with my own analysis of China's predicament (they will have enough office space coming on line from current construction projects to put every person in China into a 5x5 cubicle) and the health of their banks.

Some pundits have called the previous ten years the apex for the U.S. I respectfully disagree. Name another society that reinvented itself from mass consumer to mass producer to mass consumer and back again. The evolutionary corollary is victory goes not necessarily to the strong, but to the most adaptable and nimble in an evolutionary sense. China's cultural history shows its lack of political will to engage in far flung conflict, preferring instead to erect walls (literally and figuratively) and begin anew under another "perfect" theory of societal organization. They seem to have a cultural affinity for precision and perfection, whilst we here are used to change, to chaos, to conflict.

Perfection is unattainable by humans. Marx's perfect revolution was not the inevitable end to some Hegelian dialectical was only ever going to be a blip in history until the next perfect system was sold as a means to control a populace.

There is no other country capable or willing to secure borders, protect trade routes, and defeat any military that opposes them. If you have political capital (such as a "commitment" to human rights or subscribe to U.S. standards and rules, such as international community involvement, etc. This is also a tacit commitment to dilute sovereignity in favor of international institutions which are heavily influenced by the U.S. and Western definitions of "equality" and Western style rules), then the U.S. will happily assist you. If you do not have these things, purchase some Treasuries as a gesture of symbiosis.

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