Tuesday, August 17, 2010

A wonderful example...

...of the misguided reasoning using false analogy (household debt on the micro level has NO applicability to Sovereign Currency Issuers such as the U.S.)

It seem every decline in the Stock Market and/or every increase in the price of gold causes a massive inflow of opinion regarding the iminent demise of the U.S. Hogwash. The real dangers are in Europe and Asia.

My comments in Italics.

"Ah, but we will tax the rich. The rich have enough money. They will simply stop earning.

Let’s get real. Here is what the government is likely to do. Once Washington realize that the dollar is at risk and that they can no longer finance their wars by borrowing abroad, the government will either levy a tax on private pensions on the grounds that the pensions have accumulated tax-deferred, or the government will require pension fund managers to purchase Treasury debt with our pensions. This will buy the government a bit more time while pension accounts are loaded up with worthless paper.

The U.S. does not "finance" anything by "borrowing" abroad. It has no need to "get" dollars from anywhere in order to spend them. Notice the assumptions required for this string of events and the associated timing. The dollar is "at risk" and immediately thereafter Treasuries are "worthless"?

The last Bush budget deficit (2008) was in the $400-500 billion range, about the size of the Chinese, Japanese, and OPEC trade surpluses with the US. Traditionally, these trade surpluses have been recycled to the US and finance the federal budget deficit. In 2009 and 2010 the federal deficit jumped to $1,400 billion, a back-to-back trillion dollar increase. There are not sufficient trade surpluses to finance a deficit this large. From where comes the money?

As above. There is no "financing" of the deficit. From where comes the money? What is "money" and who owns, creates, and spends the "money"?.
The answer is from individuals fleeing the stock market into “safe” Treasury bonds and from the bankster bailout, not so much the TARP money as the Federal Reserve’s exchange of bank reserves for questionable financial paper such as subprime derivatives. The banks used their excess reserves to purchase Treasury debt.

Marginal purchasers of Treasuries in the secondary market now "finance" operations of the Government? I have no idea what the author is talking about regarding bank reserves and subprime derivatives.These financing maneuvers are one-time tricks. Once people have fled stocks, that movement into Treasuries is over. The opposition to the bankster bailout likely precludes another. So where does the money come from the next time?

Money for what? Spending the Government's budget? It simply debits and credits accounts for that. The Government does not need to go to an ATM and "get" cash in order to spend it. It simply re-arrange numbers on spreadsheets. That's all.

The Treasury was able to unload a lot of debt thanks to “the Greek crisis,” which the New York banksters and hedge funds multiplied into “the euro crisis.” The financial press served as a financing arm for the US Treasury by creating panic about European debt and the euro. Central banks and individuals who had taken refuge from the dollar in euros were panicked out of their euros, and they rushed into dollars by purchasing US Treasury debt."

There were/are no problems in Europe? Is the Treasury "unloading" debt when marginal purchasers buy Treasuries in the secondary market? This article truly misapplies economic relationships and conflates time to horrible effect.

No comments: