Thursday, May 20, 2010

Kick the can...

The idea of a United and powerful Europe is more religious than realistic. This is a dangerous time as Brussel elites frantically struggle to adjust "law" on the fly in order to preserve market and economic stability. Once again, the perception and SIGNAL of "doing something" takes priority. This has been the response of EU (and American, for that matter) politicians: simply signal that "government is working hard to resolve the problem" and hope time heals all wounds (then, of course, take credit for the resultant good fortune).

We also have plentiful evidence that some nations in the EU are planning for EU break-up and acting accordingly.

It is like quicksand.

As I have said before, this can unwind very quickly. Nothing the EU has done thus far has assuaged the liquidity risk facing individual EU nations. Quite the contrary, with austerity measures and various Shylock's taking their pound of flesh, deflationary pressures are running rampant. (This begs the question of the Euro's weakness, which is at the moment facing risk aversion and diminished status it loses "reserve currency status")

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