Sunday, March 07, 2010


The End Of Timers have come out out unanimously against the Congressional Budget Office's report concerning the future deficit position of the U.S. "Bankrupt in ten years" they cry.

Of course, no estimation is given on the error rate of the CBOs estimated in previous reports. This is important because the EOTers claim that in 2020 the Debt/GDP ratio will be 90%. The denominator of the ratio is obviously the controlling factor in this ratio and the CBOs estimates call for effectively zero growth for the next three years. While certainly possible, how likely are these estimates to come to fruition?

Various estimates of publicly held debt are bandied about in support of the EOTers end position, and yet, the External Debt position has not changed since 2007.

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