Thursday, November 19, 2009

Great Idea!

Emerging markets issuing bonds in foreign currencies. We have seen this before many, many, times and it typically does not end well.

This, given the myth of "decoupling" (although I reserve the right to admit there may be a "recoupling"), and this may well be another example of selling at the top.

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- From Angola to Belarus, emerging-
market governments are planning first-time debt offerings to
take advantage of the biggest bond rally in at least 11 years.
Investec Asset Management Ltd., Aberdeen Asset Management
and Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. say they may buy some of
the $4 billion of debt Angola plans to sell, as well as proposed
dollar bonds from Belarus. Vietnam aims to raise $1 billion in
its first offering of foreign-currency securities in four years,
Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung said yesterday. Iran,
under three sets of United Nations Security Council sanctions,
targets a 1 billion euro ($1.5 billion) sale by December.
Developing-nation government bonds are trading near the
lowest yields on record, at an average of 6.49 percent, after
the biggest 12-month decline since JPMorgan Chase & Co. began
tracking the data in 1998. Sales rose 70 percent to a record
$554 billion this year as central banks cut interest rates to
pull the world out of the worst recession since World War II.
Debuts are planned by governments without credit ratings or
dependent on international bailouts.
"It's because of the wall of money that comes from
extremely accommodative monetary policy globally," said Edwin
Gutierrez, an emerging-market money manager who invests $5
billion in assets for Aberdeen in London. "There is just
absolutely loads of liquidity out there still trying to find a
home for that money."

No comments: