Tuesday, November 03, 2009


Readers here will note my continued interest in Africa, particular sub-Saharan Africa, and its potential for growth and overplus investment returns.

Beyond the myriad reasons (some history of western law, English or Franco speaking populations, a re-newed interest in its geopolitical importance, new technologies that will mitigate epidemic and disease risk, to name just a few) for my interest, there remains one most critical:

In a world where new definitions of sovereignty are coming to fore (read: democracy as a model for governance is no longer thought of as the "only" legitimate way to obtain order among large populaces) and escalating aggression among countries for resources, the regions where the least amount of order exists offer the most premium when controlled. Risk and return.

China is attempting to accomplish this via investment (and bribes...let us not be naive). They will most likely fail. Readers here will recall that I have always maintained that without security, there are no markets*. There is only one nation that can plausibly and credibly provide instant security to large swathes of terra firma. That would of course be the U.S.

So, I will be posting summations regarding each of the sub-Saharan countries in the coming weeks. I expect a large amount of focus to be given to this region in the next few years. A semi-permanent residence for U.S. forces continues appears inevitable. The U.S. African Command was not set up merely to observe. This will inform us immediately as to U.S. intentions to check the expansion of the "illegitimates", and in what area it will emphasize. The obvious location is along the Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

*I realize this is somewhat of a chicken/egg problem, as "national interests" are a euphemism for economic interests. The point here is that in the present manifestation of globalization, without all of its powers of scale, there must be security guarantees for markets to enjoy that level of scalability.

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