Tuesday, September 02, 2008


This, dear readers, is the last article I will post concerning the strengthening dollar. I think I have made my point. The market has informing us that U.S. financial assets are the preferred units of account when storing wealth for future consumption (i.e., "investing".)

And, right on schedule, oil is down.

OPEC member countries are not stupid. For global growth to proceed (and, more importantly for them, their global investment portfolios to achieve good returns) oil prices need to fall. A temporary loss in revenue from oil is partially offset by better investment returns in local currency from the stronger dollar.

Crashes are dangerous - it becomes impossible for the Saudis to plan their generous fiscal spending packages when oil and investment revenue is volatile.

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose to the highest level against the euro in almost seven months as crude oil fell and traders speculated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will help the U.S. economy outperform Europe and Asia.

The pound fell to a two-year low versus the greenback on evidence a recession in the U.K. is looming. Australia's dollar declined to the weakest level in almost a year after the country's central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2001 and said economic growth will slow.

``Growth and monetary-policy differentials are beginning to shift in favor of the U.S. dollar,'' said Meg Browne, vice president of foreign-exchange research at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``The oil story certainly helps.''

The U.S. currency increased 0.6 percent to $1.4528 per euro at 1 p.m. in New York, from $1.4617 yesterday. It touched $1.4467, the strongest since Feb. 8. The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 108.81 yen, from 108.14. The dollar appreciated as much as 1.3 percent to $1.7783 per pound, the highest level since April 2006. The euro traded at 158.07 yen, compared with 157.95.

The Australian dollar fell as much as 2.8 percent to 82.70 U.S. cents, the lowest level since September 2007, after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the overnight cash target by a quarter-percentage point to 7 percent.

Standard Chartered Plc and BNP Paribas SA raised their forecasts for the dollar. London-based Standard predicts the dollar will rise to $1.44 per euro by year-end and $1.36 by the end of the first quarter, compared with previous forecasts of $1.49 and $1.42. BNP, based in Paris, forecasts the dollar will rise to $1.42 versus the euro and $1.71 per the pound by year- end, stronger than $1.45 and $1.88 previously.

`Double Top'

A break through $1.4555, an extension of a decline from a ``double top'' in the euro-dollar, signaled the European currency may fall to $1.4310, a level last reached in December, wrote Kevin Edgeley, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London who uses charts to predict currency movements, in a research note today.

A double top occurs when a currency makes two successive peaks, often indicating a trend's reversal. The euro reached $1.6019 on April 22, dropped to a two-month low of $1.5285 on May 8, and rose to the record of $1.6038 on July 15.

The U.S. currency surged 6 percent versus the euro in August, its biggest monthly gain since the European currency's debut in 1999. The economies of Europe and Japan shrank in the second quarter, while U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3 percent annual pace.

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