Monday, September 08, 2008

The market and discounting...

In light of my previous post, it it clear by the market's reaction that the Treasuries proposal is a positive outcome going forward.

There are dead-fall traps in the next six months, to be sure, and the nationalization of the U.S. housing market is no small matter, but it would seem the actions taken today marks a line in the sand that global financial markets will not cross.

As for the GSEs, there will be perp walks - it is difficult to maintain the stance that 5.3 Trillion in guarantees did not require more capital to reserve against potential loss...

The proposal to place both mortgage giants, which own or back $5.3 trillion in mortgages, into a government-run conservatorship also grew out of deep concern among foreign investors that the companies’ debt might not be repaid. Falling home prices, which are expected to lead to more defaults among the mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, contributed to the urgency, regulators said.

The details of the deal have not fully emerged, but it appears that investors who own the companies’ common stock will be virtually wiped out; preferred shareholders, who have priority over other shareholders, may also wind up with little. Holders of debt, including many foreign central banks, are expected to receive government backing. Top executives at both companies will be pushed out, according to those briefed on the plan.

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