Monday, May 05, 2008

Commodity bubble, toil and trouble (part III)

Not a pleasant for commodity bears, to be sure.

Today's commodity rally has all the signs of a last gasp death throw prior to accepting its fate.

One notes that in the previous 5 commodity bull markets (defined as 40%+ year on year gains, which most commodities have either met or exceeded), day to day autocorrelation decreased at the peak.

With negative commodity memes spreading, the rolling over of futures contracts while paying physical storage prices, and the natural increases of supply (ex-oil as the Saudis continue to peg price and let quantity float) that appear during bubbles, this rally will not have legs.

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