I must profess a high degree of ignorance regarding the extremely nebulous world of oil. As if the movie "Syriana" was not warning enough to amateurs such as yours truly.
Still, when probed by colleagues, I hazard the following observation regarding the price of oil in the coming year:
Saudis are setting price (and letting quantity float) now, in effect "cross-subsidizing" (read: bribing) Iran. This is analogous to Chamberlain's rationale in '39.
I can see oil at 22 occurring in two legs. If the supply of oil (and others on this list know these dynamics better than I do) increases enough to compel the Saudis to drop the price target and grab Spot bids. Chavez, Putin, and the Nordics then cut production for a further fall.
Of course, other things can compel the Saudis to drop their target as well...least of all the removal of all threats to the Saudis in the area...