Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Real Estate has just started...

...its descent.  The commerical RE indices have not budged very much, and the REcapitulator was speaking with a trader from a (very) large Hedge player here in Chicago yesterday...his thoughts were that this was one of the few low-risk shorts out there.  The wall of liquidity raises all ships.

But there are holes forming (and once again, the REcapitulator cannot take his own "no metaphors" medicine).  The Merill/Bear Stearns debacle continues to make the news, and traders are alight in rumours concerning some of the other large players selling inventory.  This story illustrates the difficulty of massive and extremely quick redemptions in the face of what amounts to term financing (or using the spread between two instruments as the primary financing vehicle).

July.  It may be earlier, but one would be foolish to short U.S. assets at the moment.

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