Friday, June 29, 2007

Inflation Expectations and the Fed

It is well-known among the finance community that Ben Shalom Bernanke believes inflation expectations is a more useful predictor of future inflation trends than current (that is, "current" in the sense that CPI figures is a compliation of data gathered in the past) inflation.

Mr. Bernanke has been very transparent about this.  So now the REcapitulator is wondering how our wonderful Fed, the most important central planning organization on the planet, is going to react to the inflation expectation figures complied by the University of Michigan:

Month                Inflation Expectation (one year ahead)
July                      3.4%
June                     3.5%
May                      3.3%
April                     3.3%
March                  3.0%

This will be an interesting test for close observers of the Fed to see how Mr. Bernanke deals this report, and compare it to previous central bankers who are now part-time consultants to very large bond funds.

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