In this episode of "Straits and Rails"...
Anthropic/OpenAI: We should slow everything down. Our cost of capital is rising and debtholders are asking questions. Engage The Clerisy and manage optics. Double trouble for any scrappy competitors if the Fed is raising rates AND we achieve regulatory capture.
The (Intellectual) Clerisy: Great! Thanks for the business! But why slowdown? We are expert historicists and see no issue here because it's different this time. Trees grow to the sky!?
Anthropic/OpenAI: Let's go with AI will kill us all by 2030. UNLESS responsibility, reason, and a very large regulatory moat prevails.
The Intellectual Clerisy: Thanks for the talking points. Narrative received. Engaging our Press and Government friends. Any particular Think Tank you want writing the regulations written by you in their white papers?
Press: Thanks for the business! (sound of virtual printing press running "Doom to Humanity" 24/7) This should get us through this week's news cycle. Then on to midterm elections!
NVIDIA: Guys wait. We should talk about this. The more you buy the more you save! How could you be losing money? Also, any way to heighten security around the Taiwan Strait until TSMC Arizona II is fully on-line?
U.S: All going "exactly" as planned. All that remains is to convince China that the AI arms race is more important than the Taiwan Strait and we expect the same results as the last Cold War given China's centralized ownership of its banking system and creaking real estate sector. Nobody wins a "keep up with the Jones's" race with us. Time for a meeting to discuss Guardrails and friendship! TSMC Arizona II will come online in 2027. This gives us options and chip security.
China: This is it! Full steam ahead! We will convince our US friends that we are committed to safety, but in reality, will outspend them for more data and more compute. Huawei, get on it! Call Russia for more oil and all the things mined from the earth! Also, NVIDIA...can haz plz Blackwell??? We promise we will abide whatever licensing agreement you wish, just like we did the other times we bought foreign originated technology.
NVIDIA: Exactly. "More" is the mathematically correct strategy in the AI race. How many would you like? (subject to U.S. Approval, of course. Could take years...maybe you just stick with whatever Huawei can come up with)
Russia: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ plus ça change...ok, we have our own problems, and we need you to buy our oil and rare earths, etc. Good luck though. Hopefully your datacenters don't turn into glorified Cold War museums like our Nuclear Silos. Also, can we be paid in Drones? The Strait of Hormuz has supply chain issues for Iranian ones...
