Monday, February 02, 2009

Confidence of prediction

Just before 2008, here were forecasts from top analysts for the S&P 500. I have redacted the sense in schadenfreude in this pedagogical lesson.

Everyone knew what was going to happen.

The most conservative forecast comes from Morgan Stanley. His prediction?1520

1675 is the prediction from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup

1625 is the prediction of Banc of America Securities

1590 is the prediction from JPMorgan Chase

1580 is the prediction from Wachovia Securities

1575 is the prediction from A.G. Edwards

Today, Everyone still knows what will happen. The experts in Davos have spoken: doom and gloom will prevail. What comfort.

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