Tuesday, March 18, 2008

End Game.

Today's fed action certainly puts things in perspective. When highly volatile markets consider a 75bp reduction in interest a disappointment, then look at the prices of commodities (and perhaps glance at commodity futures prices to garner expected inflation), one has to feel for Ben Shalom Bernanke and his continued employ as a civil servant.

(of course, the cynical part of me realizes that Ben has a massive incentive to rescue wall street firms...future clients, you see.)

So now we are at the end game. The Fed has finally disappointed market expectations (100 bp cut priced in fed funds futures) because the inflationary pressures are so open and obvious that it can no longer keep a straight face when saying things like:

"Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization."

...which, according Bernanke himself, is precisely when the lagged effects of interest rate cuts will be actually be felt.

Again, this is surreal, and central planning posits perfect information and perfect execution on that information. The Fed has neither.

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