Monday, February 19, 2007


This is an interesting time. Volatility is historically low, and the oft-mentioned "longest time prior to a 2% decline", while flawed in the sense that structural changes in the financial sector have changed (together with Bernanke's "Great Moderation"), still looms...and that is without the Recapitulator thinking about wether or not returns are independent data points or path dependent and autocorrelated.

We are either heading for a decline or this is the largest head-fake I have ever seen in the financial markets.

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