Thursday, January 18, 2007


The recent decline in oil appears to be a change of regime for the Saudis. Previously, they have pegged the price and let quantity float.

Now, geopolitical events (and their desire to gain market share amongst increasing supply at higher price levels) have given them an opportunity to be the primary provider to the west.

The Recapitulator thinks it is no coincidence that major policy changes are afoot in Iraq given the precipitous decline in oil.

Peak oil theory was always silly. $150.00 oil? $200.00 oil? Given the amounts of oil (and oil equivalent from coal and other resources) that come on line with each point of increase in the price, this theory was always a marketing ploy driven by those who were long oil. Where are those people now? For those who followed the marketing ploy, it is yet another example of the psychological bias of investors to over-weight confirming theories that are congruent with their investment positions.

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