Venezuelan Testing Grounds and a warning to China.

The recent US action in the Caribbean serves many purposes.  The "1st Order" being a resurrection of the Monroe Doctrine mentioned in the blog before as an opportunistic tool for the incumbent POTUS to wage proxy wars against our enemies in this hemisphere.  The 2nd order effect is a warning and demonstration to China that they are outmatched in the Taiwan straights and will be for the next 30 years (at least - by which time China in its current manifestation will have fallen)

I have written about this before many times.

And now Mr. Trump has seen fit (in a moment of domestic weakness) to deploy it...not only as leverage on petroleum assets but as a demonstration of US capability extrapolated to other theaters.

The USS Gerald R. Ford is in the South Caribbean right now.  It is the greatest, most technologically advanced ship in the history of man.  It's nearest competitor is decades behind and 3 more Carriers in this class are expected to be delivered in the next five years...and its only pulling further ahead in its capabilities.  Rail Guns, Solid State lasers, hypoer advanced guidance systems, etc.  All are on the table for the Ford class once solidly developed.

The only issue it has is combat testing - it has not "officially" seen combat, which is generally left to the old battlehorse Nimitz Carriers.

The South Carribean sea (where, somewhere, the Gerald R. Ford currently patrols) is approximately 1.1 Million square kilometers.

The Taiwain Straight combat area (the location of likely naval conflict between China and the US) is approximately 1.2 million square kilometers.

So, boats the size of small sail boats can be located, targeted, and destroyed in an area of 1.1 million square kilometers.  There is no-where to hide. 

Larger boats would be even easier targets, such is the gap in US nautical and air superiority.

 It is "offically" unknown where the air strikes are coming from, but in terms of capability in a large theater, the CPC has been served notice.  There is simply no counter (blah blah Exocet Missile and blah blah Torpedo.  Neither would get a nautical mile close to the Ford before being disintegrated) to a Ford class Aircraft Carrier Group parked anywhere in the Carribean...or the World.

So batting practice for the Gerald R. Ford has begun, and I am sure some folks are eager to see it hit some home runs vs. Venezuela. 

So where are the other (Nimitz) Carrier groups?  Guam.  Near Taiwan.  Near the Taiwan Straight combat area.

The dots connect themselves.

 

Time elapses arithmetically...

 ... but AI generated "news" can expand geometrically (well, before the combinatorial explosion, anyway).   The increase of identity politics across the world is noticeable in this regard.  

Fake report of French ‘coup’ goes viral — and fools African leader

2025-12-18 18:33:19 GMT

(The Times)

President Macron has revealed that he was contacted last weekend by an African

president worried about a coup d’état in France after seeing fake news on

Facebook.

Macron accused Facebook of undermining democracy by refusing to delete the

fake television news report, made with the help of artificial intelligence by

a 17-year-old boy from Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso.

The video was viewed more than 16 million times before the author removed it

himself after an outcry in Paris.

The video, which featured a fictional journalist in Paris talking about a

“coup d’état led by a colonel whose identity has not been revealed”, was

highlighted by Macron in a question-and-answer session with readers of the

regional newspaper La Provence in Marseille on Tuesday.

 And, here we are.

This is an opening act.  I expect the headliner to begin in March '26.

No one has any idea how revenue will comport with current AI valuations.  I agree that it has great potential for just about "any" industry, but that transformative process will take much more time than some anticipate ("all customer jobs will be replaced by 2030, etc. etc.)
  

Ai giveth...

 ...and taketh away...

"Every time we list a job posting, we get 100 North Korean spies applying to
it," Infante said. "When you look at their resumes, they look amazing; they
use all the keywords for what we're looking for."

Fake job seekers are flooding U.S. companies that are hiring for remote positions, tech CEOs say – NBC New York

Trump, China, and Nobility vs. Bourgeous virtues...

 As stated here before the following moves:

China counters with a "34% retaliatory tariff".  This is a bluff and too strong of a move.  They will be forced to the negotiating table within 3 months once the fallout from the US actions take hold.

Trump embodies a shift to "Nobility" virtues (courage, loyalty, hospitality, honor to a select few), etc.  These are much different than the Bourgeois virtues the world has come to expect from the US in the last 50 years.

I am ambivalent regarding the absolute value of the above virtues, and merely express that this is a sea-change for international relations, and will be interesting to see how these actions play out given the US recipe for dealing with competitors:

Cooperate, Assist, Tolerate...then suddenly...violently...Compete.

One of the overwhelming strengths of the US is its ability to adapt and change, both on socio-economic and political levels, and the SPEED which it does so.

One wonder how the CCP will attempt to mirror this given very little institutional/cultural memory on how to digest what is coming.

This "all" about China.  And this is also why Russian peace is important.  Japan to the East, Russia to the North, and Australia to the South.  

Meanwhile...an important signal amongst the noise...

 While every news outlet is making sense of "reciprocal tariffs" and the resultant ramifications, a credit rating service (yes, I have railed against them in the past so this is to be taken with the usual cautions) downgrades the Paper Dragon.  Note the "rising public debt" trajectory" language.

Managing the political and social fallout from the coming 3-5 quarters of chaos will be a tall order for the CCP.  

Yuan Falls Versus Dollar as Fitch Downgrades China’s Rating to A

2025-04-03 12:45:46 GMT

By Nour Al Ali

(Bloomberg) -- The Chinese yuan fell further against the US

dollar, underperforming all major peers, after Fitch downgraded

China’s rating to A from A+. The outlook is stable.

Fitch said the downgrade reflects their “expectations of a

continued weakening of China’s public finances and a rapidly

rising public debt trajectory.” Meanwhile, China pushed back and

said the downgrade does not fully reflect the country’s economic

recovery momentum, calling it “biased”.

Volatility...

 ...ahead here.   I expect November to remind us it never went away...