The Obama Doctrine...a continuing series...

(For my initial report outlining the Obama Doctrine of October, 2008, see the "PAPERS" section under the "useful links" heading on this blog)

In my previous post regarding Mr. Das and his "bullseye" understanding of the macro factors surrounding China, the following quote encapsulates and sets the trajectory for the Obama Doctrine:

China’s mercantilist strategies have important implications for other developing countries. Chinese investment in and trade with Latin America and Africa is concentrated on securing access to resources forcing these nations to specialise in commodities. This reversion to a 19th century trend may not be compatible with Latin American and African long term development and stability.

The U.S. has no choice but to enforce boundaries and ground rules for resource-hungry China and this will eventually manifest itself as the Obama Doctrine.

The Punctuated Obama Doctrine...

...I fully expect the incumbent to carry the election come November, and I also expect the nascent (and heretofore, admittedly, rather circumspect) Obama Doctrine to germinate into a full-scale policy response to increased resource competition in Africa.

But there will be punctuations in the Doctrine, which I have compared to an extension of the Monroe Doctrine of the early 1800s.  I expect areas that garner too much friction from Russia (THE antagonist for global competition in the next 20-50 years) to be quietly de-emphasized.

The Monroe Doctrine itself had such punctuations that produces far-reaching effects.  The Falkland Islands themselves were first occupied by Argentinian nationalists prior to being forcefully jettisoned by American personnel.  When the resulting vacuum was filled by the British, the Americans conveniently forgot about the strong rhetoric of the Monroe Doctrine.

Fleshing out the Obama doctrine...

I have maintained for some time that there is now a modern corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. This "Obama Doctrine" will emphasize the antipodes, and more specifically Latin America and Africa.

Obama's selections thus far for the Treasury (and I am of the opinion that Larry Summers will be Fed Chair) and other cabinet positions reinforce my opinion that this is a pragmatic administration.

Realpolitik is back (if indeed it ever left). The results from the G20 "coordination" meetings will be telling on this account.

Thus this article is corroborative evidence for the above thoughts:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/21/america/russia.php
Medvedev faces hard sell in Latin America
By Simon Romero, Michael Schwirtz and Alexei Barrionuevo
Friday, November 21, 2008
CARACAS:

When President Dmitri Medvedev planned his forthcoming trip through Latin America, Russia seemed poised to present one of the most visible challenges in years to U.S. influence in the region.

With oil prices high, Russia was flush with cash and planning a range of measures, from helping Venezuela build a nuclear reactor to strengthening military ties with Cuba, a Cold War ally of the Soviet Union.

But when Medvedev reaches the region next week, he will find it drastically altered by events - and in some cases, less receptive to his overtures. Plunging oil prices and the global financial crisis, which have hammered Russia particularly hard, have raised questions about Russia's reliability as an economic partner, while Senator Barack Obama's victory in the presidential race has raised hopes throughout Latin America of a new era of improved relations with the United States.

In this rapidly changing landscape, most Latin American countries are recalibrating their political interests, frustrating Russian efforts to deepen regional ties as China did in the last decade.

"Russia's elites, including President Medvedev, look on China's rising diplomatic and economic successes in Latin America and in Africa with envy," said Stephen Kotkin, the director of Russian studies at Princeton University. "They also perceive an opportunity, much exaggerated, to send the U.S. a message in its supposed backyard."

But throughout the region, Medvedev faces a hard sell. In Cuba there are lingering suspicions about Russian intentions, after the Cuban economy collapsed when the Soviet Union withdrew in the 1990s, as well as a reluctance to alienate the incoming Obama administration that might push to end the trade embargo.

Brazil, Latin America's largest country, which also places a high priority on relations with an Obama administration, wants to engage Russia not as a source of weapons or military assistance but as an equal partner.

The Obama Doctrine

Over a year ago I made the argument (available in the "PAPERS" section to the left on this blog) that The Obama administration would consider an "Obama Doctrine" that would effectively focus efforts on the Antipodes; focusing on counteracting infiltration efforts by commodity dependent exporters, interdicting the import of socialist doctrine into Africa and South America, etc.

Now my attention turns to South America. Africa as proxy battlefield between the U.S. and China has become well-known to those who need to know these things.

But South America, which has experienced a commodity and property boom, will also face significant pressure from markets. Brazil will not be spared and the Andean countries will certainly suffer from decreased capital flow and rising real interest rates.

I fully expect the foreign policy stance of the Obama administration to shift towards the antipodes and away from the drama in Europe.

The Obama Doctrine

A short essay concerning Mr. Obama and some implications assuming he is elected. (see "papers" section on this blog)

Abstract:

This essay seeks to outline some of likely implications and responses given an election victory by Barack Obama. The main conclusion derived here is an antipodean leaning towards U.S. foreign policy: an “Obama doctrine”, analogous to the Monroe Doctrine of the early 1800s, seeking influence in Africa and Latin America. It seeks to define the broad brush strokes, leaving specific investment strategies to later papers.

(update: the paper is only available via email contact)

The Obama Doctrine...

...at work in the antipodes. A larger U.S. presence in Africa was predicted here as soon as Obama was president both as a vehicle for proxy competition with other nations as well as a bulkhead for energy security and inexpensive labor.

This is just the beginning.

BANGUI, Central African Republic - U.S. Special Forces troops have set up a base in the Central African Republic as part of their regional hunt for fighters from the Ugandan-born Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) group, military sources said.

"The deployment of this contingent, the size of which is unknown, was carried out very discreetly with Ugandan military aircraft," a Central African military official said Dec. 19 on condition of anonymity.

The U.S. troops set up a base in Obo and are expected to coordinate their efforts with local government forces and Ugandan soldiers.

U.S. President Barack Obama in October announced he was sending 100 Special Forces troops to Kampala, Uganda, to help Uganda track down LRA chief and international fugitive Joseph Kony, who has wreaked havoc over four nations for more than two decades.

Besides Obo, the U.S. forces also have a forward base in South Sudan. They began deploying in Uganda earlier this month.

The Obama Doctrine...

...Years ago I speculated (and wrote a brief White Paper) regarding the probability of increased activity by the United States in the Antipodean continents of South America and Africa. There were a number of reasons for my interest.

It appears now that events have conspired to force this quasi-doctrine to fruition.

Full article here. It matters not wether the substance of the article is pretext or a real threat. The interests are there.

"We are looking for some legislative authority ... that might be able
to give us some broader authorities, legislative authorities and
multiyear funding for some of the types of activities that I'd like to
do in terms of building coalitions to take on these complex threats,"
Sheehan said.

DoD will hand over a slate of potential legislative options being
drafted by Sheehan's office to lawmakers "in the weeks and months
ahead," he added.

However, the Pentagon is already beginning to move ahead with its
plans for both continents.

U.S. special forces have been in Uganda since October, providing
support to local forces going after Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony and
his Lord's Resistance Army.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced in February that U.S. special
forces and counterinsurgency specialists returning from Iraq and
Afghanistan will be redeployed to a number of global hot spots,
specifically those in Africa and South America.

Boots on the ground Economic perspective in Venezuela...

 As a preface, all the VZ friends of The Recapitulaltor have applauded the US action.  Again, dear readers, its not like the Monroe Doctrine was not invoked before...by Democratic Presidents...

The Obama Doctrine

So this snippet is a microcosm.  On a more amusing note and as a person living in Minnesota, it does seem a strange confluence of things leading back to here (Walz, fraud, etc.  Cargill is headquartered here)

https://x.com/agrisacademy/status/2008280244105380254

Cargill was/is the leading producer of critical staple ingredients such as flour, pasta, vegetable oil, and rice in VZ. I am not saying I agree with grabbing the dictator, but I did have a front row seat to the damage a kleptocracy did to innocent people.

I have maintained...

...for some time that the U.S. should (and likely will) re-prioritize its presence in the world to the antipodes, and more specifically Latin America and Africa. Progress in this development have not been to my liking (and, as always, I could be completely wrong about the gravity of our foreign policy), but the Obama Doctrine (a modern day corollary to the Monroe Doctrine of the 1800s) appears to be the safest way to "de-couple" U.S. interests away from a disintegrating Europe, a tempestuous Middle East, and a downright dangerous Asia.

It appears that the U.S. is making serious moves to effectuate this, but the risks remain that it holds on to old loyalties and out-dated notions based on wars fought in previous centuries. It will take a strong president with a clear vision to accomplish the re-prioritization...so perhaps my faith is misguided given the incumbent's "whatever makes me re-electable" stance on foreign policy.

Guarantees on Security...

With all the guarantees of toxic assets being bandied about, a security guarantee from the world's premier provider of such services is not far behind.

Of course, our resources are finite and this will come at a cost of influence and increased political power. The Obama Doctrine (similar to the Monroe Doctrine and the financial Roosevelt corollary) is on its way. European business will be nationalized at the individual state level with obvious implications for the Euro and Maastricht.

China will be marginalized eventually, notwithstanding arguments such as "The reason China is healthy is because they have not experienced a banking failure" that make me want to re-examine epistemology 101...

Meanwhile, this leaves the U.S. relatively unencumbered, having dragged out the dirty laundry for all to see.

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico

The U.S. Defense Department thinks Mexico's two most deadly drug cartels together have fielded more than 100,000 foot soldiers - an army that rivals Mexico's armed forces and threatens to turn the country into a narco-state.

"It's moving to crisis proportions," a senior U.S. defense official told The Washington Times. The official, who spoke on the condition that he not be named because of the sensitive nature of his work, said the cartels' "foot soldiers" are on a par with Mexico's army of about 130,000.

The disclosure underlines the enormity of the challenge Mexico and the United States face as they struggle to contain what is increasingly looking like a civil war or an insurgency along the U.S.-Mexico border. In the past year, about 7,000 people have died - more than 1,000 in January alone. The conflict has become increasingly brutal, with victims beheaded and bodies dissolved in vats of acid.

The death toll dwarfs that in Afghanistan, where about 200 fatalities, including 29 U.S. troops, were reported in the first two months of 2009. About 400 people, including 31 U.S. military personnel, died in Iraq during the same period.

The biggest and most violent combatants are the Sinaloa cartel, known by U.S. and Mexican federal law enforcement officials as the "Federation" or "Golden Triangle," and its main rival, "Los Zetas" or the Gulf Cartel, whose territory runs along the Laredo,Texas, borderlands.

The two cartels appear to be negotiating a truce or merger to defeat rivals and better withstand government pressure. U.S. officials say the consequences of such a pact would be grave.

Competition over scarce resources...

...the news regarding Chinese moratoriums over rare-earth exports as well as the "counter-subsidy" duties, as if the entire Chinese economy were not "subsidized", on U.S. chicken imports is particularly disconcerting given my views on the contracting (and associated official GDP "management") economy of the Paper Dragon.

This is why I have been mentioning the importance of Africa and the security apparatus the U.S. enjoys versus the Chinese model of purchasing raw material sites and building the associated infrastructure for extraction.

The Obama Doctrine (my view that the President will be forced to form a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine, this time focusing on the antipode continents of Africa and South America) has yet to form, but a strain of it seems inevitable.

Hastening the Obama Doctrine

In addition to Cubazuela, Mexico is on the radar for domestic "disequilibrium". I have maintained repeatedly that an antipodean emphasis (emphasizing Latin America and Africa) will punctuate the President-elect's foreign policy. This emphasis will be similar to the Monroe Doctrine and will provide a very clear signal to the rest of the world as to what regions are off-limits.

(U.S. shipment of 3,000 tons of ammunition to Israel is certainly a clear signal, but that is another story entirely.)

The United States (warning: untested metaphor following) "phylogeny" will have us regress in times of environmental stress. I have outlined the protectionist leanings (and the press has certainly been revisiting the Smoot-Hawley act recently) and Keynesian reductionism. The foreign policy formation will follow the economics.

EDIT: Readers also are directed to the currency swap facilities the FED has engaged with the Mexican central bank...and not a word from the Fed about its 30 Billion investment.

SECOND EDIT: List of Mexican Credit Default Swaps on Sovereign debt (sovereign CDS have a U-shaped distribution of maturities that are linked to the instrument)

Again, no word from the fed about hedging the exposure. I have outlined its lack of concern in previous posts. (Thanks to my friend, GZ, for pointing this out for me)

Mexico CDS:
W 01/14 329.901
T 01/13 309.429
M 01/12 311.340


F 01/09 295.165
T 01/08 304.193
W 01/07 295.670
T 01/06 277.731
M 01/05 278.660


F 01/02
T 01/01 292.604
W 12/31 292.604
T 12/30 295.178
M 12/29 292.371

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

That Doctrine...

Detractors of United States policy must be crestfallen with its stubborn adhesion as world hegemony.  It seems as though the U.S. is always ascendant regardless of economic and political cycles, and each time the U.S. appears on the verge of being suitably chastened, it once again ekes out victory.

The “decoupling” intellectual exercise that posited Emerging Markets as being on the verge of dominance is now exposed for its weakness.  Without increasing GDP, these countries quickly fall from grace as their institutions lack the capacity to handle any amount of social disorder.

With the recent GDP print of Brazil and associated rate cut, we are now seeing the next step in the development of country-formation and the fruition of the Obama Doctrine fully developed in the Antipodes.

One of the important observations to note is that global interest rates are the lowest in history (per capita if not on an absolute basis) and yet the globe is mired in deflationary pressures, contrary to classical economic theory.

With Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, Mexico, etc. destabilizing quickly, a region with a historically communist/socialist bent will experience a resurgence of such activity.  In a previous post, I opined that the U.S. activities with respect to the drug war have anticipated these events and have built a network of partners in order to guarantee stability in the area.

The economic pressure building in locales that have little experience or expertise in dealing with financial calamity and wealth destruction is enormous, and provides the U.S. with an once in a millennium opportunity to cement its position.

Expropriation risk...A continuing series...

I have written about the Andean region several times on this blog, and its propensity for upheaval and traditional sympathy to communism and socialism. These events will garner the attention of the Administration very quickly. Perhaps there is hope yet (from my perspective) for a more formal delineation of the "Obama Doctrine" that I wrote about shortly after Obama's ascension.

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ollanta Humala campaigned for Peru's
presidency in 2006 wearing red T-shirts and expressing admiration for
Venezuelan socialist leader Hugo Chavez. This year, he's donning
business suits and vowing to expand ties with investor-favorite Brazil.
The former army officer's change in raiment and rhetoric has helped
boost him into first place in polls ahead of the first round of voting
April 10. Investors including Barclays Capital, who in December
dismissed him as a "radical" also-ran after Peru grew 8.8 percent last
year, now say the outcome of a likely runoff on June 5 is too close to
call.
While abandoning the anti-capitalist rhetoric has allowed Humala to
build support beyond his rural base, it's unclear if he'd govern with
the same restraint, said political analyst Alvaro Vargas Llosa. Peru's
stocks, bonds and currency fell in the past three weeks as Humala
overtook congresswoman Keiko Fujimori and two other rivals who are tied
for second place.
"There is real reason to fear that Humala won't be part of the
modern left," said Vargas Llosa, a senior fellow at the Independent
Institute in Washington. "It's a real risk because we've never had it so
good."
Humala had 26 percent support in a nationwide poll taken March 26
to April 1 by Lima-based researcher Ipsos Apoyo, up from 21 percent a
week earlier and 10 percent in January.
Fujimori, the daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori,
trailed him with 18 percent support, while former President Alejandro
Toledo had 17 percent support and Toledo's former Finance Minister Pedro
Pablo Kuczynski had 16 percent.

Trajectories

It is time now to discuss eventualities and trajectories for the global economy.   The Great Rate Compression that I discussed in years ago is now running its course.  The end-game for the Euro remains tantalizingly close (I have never made my position unclear as to the wisdom of the "European Union" experiment) and the world is beginning to understand that Mercantilist China is an entirely different animal than the United States during its Industrial Revolution.

Once the Great Rate Compression unwinds and capital costs return to historical levels, it will be akin to witholding a drug from a group of addicts.  You quickly see who enjoys a stronger will and stronger physical constitution.  The coming years will test every government and culture on the planet.

Within the decade, we should see the first proxy wars in Africa.  Most likely, they will be waged between the United States and China, but Russia is also a possibility.  Businesses that specialize in weaponry, transportation, logistical assistance, etc. should do very well given newfound interest in Sub-Saharan Africa.  In a gold rush, it is better to sell shovels to the prospector than engage in prospecting, and the U.S. understands the Achilles heel of all developing nations:  raw materials.  Guaranteeing access to these markets and providing security services for same remains a growth business for able sovereigns.

I can't stress this point enough:  the only nation on the planet who can provide these services for anyone and anywhere at any time is the United States.  In times of economic stress (and the conflict that comes with it) these services increase in value.  Ask yourself, dear reader:  Are the coming 10 years likely to be more peaceful than the previous 10 years?

The U.S. should sharpen its "Obama Doctrine" with respect to Latin America after Obama's victory in October.  This strategy synergizes well with U.S. African interests and prohibits any ideological (read: Communist or the quasi-pseudo faith worshipped in the PRC) discord in its geological neighborhood.  I have no doubt the current administration will have a far larger Foreign Policy presence in its second term.

The U.S. practices a military policy of "stratego-diplomacy" and "optical containment" by demonstrating its military capabilities from Australia to the Malacca Straights to the South China Sea while simultaneously employing a liberal trade policy.  This will eventually neutralize the China threat entirely because China is competing on one metric (cost).  However, in the short term China remains an emaciated junky that consistently runs to its dealer when it needs a fix.  As for regional conflicts,  North Korea is an easy target for China.  The ideological currency gained from "freeing one's communist brethren" would do wonders to satiate an angry and skeptical domestic populace.  It would also save the embarrassment (and threat) of a united Korea.

France faces a difficult time.  With regional rivals quickly reverting back to historical "normalcy", its ability to legislate and demand asymmetric terms out of proportion to its importance is coming to a close.  This may change, if France sees itself as a security guarantor for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.  Providing regional services would be of great benefit to that nation, especially considering Germany seems unwilling to engage in one of its traditional national pastimes.

So, we do indeed live in interesting times.  Emerging Markets will become squeezed by more aggressive nations until the security contractors arrive.  The U.S. benefits from all this and will not experience the inflation that so many have called for.  Other developed nations (the entirety of the EU without Germany, who will most certainly leave the Euro) most certainly will.

LatAm

It won't be long before a carrier group anchors in the Carribean above Aruba and the Antilles...perhaps my formulation of the Obama Doctrine will come to fruition after all.

The U.S. State Department announced sanctions against Venezuelan state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) May 24 in retaliation for Venezuela's shipments of gasoline to Iran. The sanctions bar PDVSA from any U.S. government contracts, as well as any U.S.-sourced export/import financing.

According to the State Department, the sanctions will not impact PDVSA's ability to ship oil into the United States, or the operations of its subsidiaries. While it is too early to know the precise impact the sanctions on PDVSA will have, on its face the move appears more symbolic than actually intended to harm PDVSA's business interests.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced in September 2009 a deal worth $800 million under which Venezuela would ship Iran 20,000 barrels of gasoline per day to supply its domestic consumption needs. Venezuela has admitted to occasional shipments of gasoline between 2009 and 2010, but has also made several statements indicating that it had halted shipments because Iran no longer needed Venezuelan gasoline. Closer to the truth is that the Venezuelan refining sector struggles to meet soaring domestic demand, suffers from a serious lack of maintenance and can barely keep up with its own production needs. Venezuela simply lacks both the excess capacity to supply Iran, and the financial stability to absorb opportunity costs of shipping gasoline halfway around the world.

Another pressing concern for Venezuela is the possibility that it might actually provoke a serious response out of the United States by violating U.N. sanctions against Iran. While relations between the United States and Venezuela appeared to ameliorate briefly in the wake of U.S. President Barack Obama taking office, the two quickly returned to tense relations. The most recent source of tension between the two states was the extradition to Venezuela by Colombia of accused drug kingpin Walid Makled. That U.S. sanctions against PDVSA follow what some interest groups in Washington view as a missed opportunity to gain leverage over Chavez is no coincidence. Pressure has been building in Washington to enact sanctions against Chavez and his regime, including efforts to link the Venezuelan government to international militant organization Hezbollah.

Hastening the Obama doctrine...

...as the implications for shrinking markets will force the hand of the U.S.'s security apparatus.

Just wait until the axis shifts...

...from a northern hemisphere emphasis of the world.

The below article is interesting.

The "Obama Doctrine" will see the U.S. out-compete the Chinese in emerging markets. The option-value of U.S. security will be most felt in the emerging markets of the antipodes (Central and South America, Africa). Zambia's official language is English, it has a large HIV problem, 6 Billion in foreign debt, and its major export is copper. It lies landlocked in a continent where security is, charitably speaking, lacking. It is flanked by failed states (Zimbabwe and Angola). Investing in such a country without security and legal rule-sets opens up tremendous risk.

And China will have domestic challenges. The Chinese mercantilist policies (and economic "miracle") were only sustainable given global demand. They stand on a very precarious ledge with little domestic demand, an artificially weak currency, and Trillions in foreign currency savings...and all of this cloaked in an opaque political system that is rife with corruption, cronyism, and secrecy.

This article is also quite interesting as it is clearly evidence that individual Chinese people are diversifying their business pursuits. The point being capital movement at home will likely soon be restricted.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5576766.ece

“We don’t have the type of problems we had in the past… We can get Chinese investors. You know the Chinese and perhaps the Indians seem to be the only people to have money left to invest in the mines. Several Asians, including the Chinese, are interested in coming to Zambia to take any empty mines,” he said.

China, which has pumped billions of pounds in aid and loans into Africa in the last 10 years, has an estimated $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves which it plans to diversify away from Western economies and dollar-denominated funds.

Economists say it plans to use this war chest to buy up operations abandoned by western companies – a move which delights many African countries who say former colonial powers resent China’s presence because they see Africa as their own turf.

Over the past decade, a third of all new trade and investment in Africa has come from Asia, most of it from China with India a close second. Economists say that even though demand from these countries has fallen, it has not collapsed and demand from emerging economies will ensure prices recover and remain buoyant.

Benghazi

I made the point in a previous post that the assassination of U.S. personnel in Benghazi appeared to be a politically motivated, perhaps even personal, attack against U.S. presence there.  I made the point that there are historical echoes as well and made the comparison with Robert Burnes and the Empire of Great Britain.

Much more will be learned from this debacle, but one thing appears certain:  intelligence failures are inevitable on hostile ground and perhaps even more so on "friendly" ground.

More fallout from the events include the sacking of the AFRICOM commander in addition to sober conversations regarding the over-extension of U.S. political power without access to immediate and forceful military follow-up.

And of course the fact this intertwines U.S. interests with Africa as a whole is not lost here.  It now appears that whomever occupies the White House come November, the Obama Doctrine will still come to fruition, if not by overt design then certainly by necessity.

Tails I win...

...heads your GDP falls...

Detractors of United States policy must be crestfallen with its stubborn adhesion as world hegemony.  It seems as though the U.S. is always ascendant regardless of economic and political cycles, and each time the U.S. appears on the verge of being suitably chastened, it once again ekes out victory.

The “decoupling” intellectual exercise that posited Emerging Markets as being on the verge of dominance is now exposed for its weakness.  Without increasing GDP, these countries quickly fall from grace as their institutions lack the capacity to handle any amount of social disorder.

With the recent GDP print of Brazil and associated rate cut, we are now seeing the next step in the development of country-formation and the fruition of the Obama Doctrine fully developed in the Antipodes.

One of the important observations to note is that global interest rates are the lowest in history (per capita if not on an absolute basis) and yet the globe is mired in deflationary pressures, contrary to classical economic theory.

With Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, Mexico, etc. destabilizing quickly, a region with a historically communist/socialist bent will experience a resurgence of such activity.  In a previous post, I opined that the U.S. activities with respect to the drug war have anticipated these events and have built a network of partners in order to guarantee stability in the area.

The economic pressure building in locales that have little experience or expertise in dealing with financial calamity and wealth destruction is enormous, and provides the U.S. with an once in a millennium opportunity to cement its position.