Thursday, July 16, 2026

Instant feedback mechanisms in the Middle Kingdom...




Subtle.  Very subtle...and there is nothing Russia can do about it given it's increasingly precarious position.  Sell at cost (or at a loss) to keep the wheels greased in the East while ceding territory in the West.  Such is the power of a defacto monarchy - you can ignore market signals (both financial and political) so long as the local populace is controlled.

One wonders If Ukraine has a plan to retaliate for Russia's targeting of water supplies.  Either direct action (eliminating potable reservoirs/distribution systems) or indirect (attacking arable land/farming concerns)...but unlike the movie (the screenpic above) "Red Dawn", it appears unlikely that Russia will have any ability to capture land as a countermeasure.  


Four years of war and economic isolation have reduced the Russian president to a supplicant in a relationship growing more imbalanced -- and at times tense.

Before Putin made his 14th trip to meet with Xi in China, he publicly signaled that the two countries would strike a breakthrough agreement on energy. Indeed, his May visit had no bigger ambition than persuading Xi to greenlight a second natural-gas pipeline between Russia and China -- known as the Power of Siberia 2, a project two decades in the making that Moscow desperately needs.

But the Russian delegation that flew to Beijing ahead of Putin ran into a brick wall. Chinese officials made it clear to the visiting head of Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas giant, that they would sign up to the pipeline only if Russia sold them gas at the same lower-than-market rate Moscow sells domestically, said people with knowledge of the talks. In essence, Beijing was asking the Kremlin to subsidize the project.

Driving home their point, Beijing's officials told the Russians not to raise the issue again until the terms changed, the people said.

A day later, Putin left the Chinese capital having signed 42 agreements and joint declarations. The pipeline deal wasn't among them. Beijing offered no public explanation.

"Xi received Putin like an emperor receiving his visitor in his castle," said Joerg Wuttke, a veteran German business executive with long experience in China-Russia relations, "and sent him home."

Friday, March 06, 2026

Readers here...

 ...are not suprised at the spike in Vol.






Still has some time before weak hands get forced out.

Thursday, February 26, 2026

"Why take a chance?" - Cleaning House in the Middle Kingdom



There is a scene in the movie "Casino" that ushers in an incredibly violent motage that focuses on "cleaning house" (eliminating anyone who could testify or cooperate with law enforcement, aka "rats")

Life imitating art.  Who knows how many are compromised and Xi Jinping must be uttering "why take a chance" under his breath...

By Foster Wong and Josh Xiao
(Bloomberg) -- China removed nine military lawmakers from
its national parliament in the latest sign that President Xi
Jinping’s purge of key defense establishment personnel continues
to widen.
The country’s top legislative body revoked the membership
of Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support
Force Political Commissar Li Wei, along with seven other
military officials, during their two-day meeting this week,
state-run Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday citing a
notice from the National People’s Congress Standing Committee.
The dismissals from the 14th National People’s Congress
include Ground Force’s Ding Laifu; Central Military Commission’s
Bian Ruifeng and Wang Donghai; Navy’s Shen Jinlong and Qin
Shengxiang; Air Force’s Yu Zhongfu; and Rocket Force’s Yang
Guang, according to the report, which didn’t provide reasons for
the removals.



Thursday, February 05, 2026

Volatility (part N)

 More of the same and see previous posts for the timeline I expect.




Monday, January 26, 2026

Volatility...

 The Recapitulator believes the Ides of March will herald the return of volatilty, which is looking rather cheap in that context...




Monday, January 19, 2026

VIX get 19% increase today...

 ...on a holiday no less.  More pre-shocks.




Monday, January 12, 2026

Minnesota Fraud and Trust/Non-Trust societies

TLDR:  Justice moves arithmetically and retrospectively. fraud moves exponentially and contemporaneously. This is a problem for the United States.

The Recapitulator resides a town over from downtown Minneapolis, which is suffering from all sorts of issues at the moment but I will discuss "Justice" a bit here.

One of the challenges with Western Society importing immigrants is the issue of a low-trust vs. high- trust design for the prevailing Justice System.

The West is culturally a high-trust Justice System design. This is based on cultural values which assume "honesty" in the community as a whole and dishonesty as relative outliers. Because this is the assumption many safeguards and guardrails are built into the investigatorey and prosecutorial arms of the government. These act as checks against government power.

This system also relies upon rights, responsibilities, of citizens and controls upon authorities to limit power and enforcement. There is a presumption of innocence. Social enforcement of dishonesty is also purvasive. If one is known as "dishonest" in this space, one's opportunities are truncated and one risks being a pariah.

Conversely, low-trust justice systems assume transactions are arms length, fraud and deception are part of the game, and participants should dispense with long-term social punishments.

Minneapolis in particular serves as a particularly good laboratory for what happens when low-trust communities are imported into a high-trust Justice system designed on cultural norms based on honesty.
Justice moves arithmetically...and fraud (including political fraud and collusion) moves exponentially

Given the resource drain that investigations, prosecutions, and convictions demand, scaling up fraudulent operations acts as instant insulation from future enforcement. The process of gathering evidence, prosecuting, etc., etc. makes the US Justice system powerless to combat low-trust populations for the most part if efforts are coordinated and allowed to scale. A first-mover advantage.

For example, the largest RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) case in US History, US vs. MS-13, the number of defendants topped a whopping 73 people. From indictment to sentencing took approximately 8 years.

The possible Defendants of the Fraud in Minnesota could number 2-3 orders of magnitude greater than this, putting immense pressure on a high-trust Justice System designed to limit Governmental power, which of course is not accidental.

All of this puts pressure on a Justice System based on high-trust cultural values. And therein lies problems, with future "solutions" that would be terrifying if they were not already in motion.

We are hurtling towards near-omniscience with AI driven surveillance systems. A possible sollution to the inherant scaleability problem above would be to eliminate some of the safeguards associated with a high-trust Justice system in the name of expedience.

The ramifications on culture are obvious. And its interesting to note the experiment of expecting instutions fo change cultures by moving populations from low-trust to high-trust locales has failed. And yet, the solution may harken a different, perhaps even more complicated and dark moment for "Justice".

I can hear the "solution" now...

"Have some issues with exponentially expanding fraud in light of an arithmetically limited Justice system? Sure we can build an app for that! But it will not involve the Courts...or Congress. All we have to do is remove the guardrails. We can always replace them if it does not work right?"