A recent post by that somewhat superficial appellation of a
“Facebook Friend” presented the following problem:
“There are 2 Identical Hotels (“A” and “B”) next to each
other. Both of the buildings contain 100
rooms numbered 1-100. 110 guests are
blindfolded and randomly put into rooms 1-10 of building A, and rooms 1-100 of
building B. You are one of those people,
and you are told that your room number is 9.
What is the probability that you are in building A?”
My response: “I am
blindfolded and “someone” tells me I am in room 9? The answer is 50/50, because I don’t believe
what I am told given that I am blindfolded and it is unclear from the problem
exactly what type of situation I am in”.
Yes, readers, I am aware that this can be solved with some
Bayesian calisthenics (what is the probability of being in hotel A if someone
says you are in room 13?...0%, etc.) But
context is everything and it’s that most luxuriant tapestry that provides the fabric for real answers to every meaningful question.
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