Thursday, November 06, 2014
Public speeches by leaders of State...
...are typically the repository of someone's polticial aspirations combined with empty promises and spiritual references to some amorphous cultural impetus that inevitably "wants" the speaker to continue his or her quest "for the people".
Vladimir Putin's speech at the recent Valdai conference was something else.
Once again he proves his bona fides as man who thinks history is watching him. (a luxury afforded to dicatorial states as there are no checks and/or balances to undermine his will)
He senses weakness in political will and continues to exploit this vacuum by providing a rational, open, caring, and eminently civilized voice of international cooperation. An interesting tact. But let us not avert our eyes from his goal, which is of course a neo Russian empire.
The speech itself and exerpts.
At the same time, the formation of a so-called polycentric world (I would also like to draw attention to this, colleagues) in and of itself does not improve stability; in fact, it is more likely to be the opposite. The goal of reaching global equilibrium is turning into a fairly difficult puzzle, an equation with many unknowns.
So, what is in store for us if we choose not to live by the rules – even if they may be strict and inconvenient – but rather live without any rules at all? And that scenario is entirely possible; we cannot rule it out, given the tensions in the global situation. Many predictions can already be made, taking into account current trends, and unfortunately, they are not optimistic. If we do not create a clear system of mutual commitments and agreements, if we do not build the mechanisms for managing and resolving crisis situations, the symptoms of global anarchy will inevitably grow.
Today, we already see a sharp increase in the likelihood of a whole set of violent conflicts with either direct or indirect participation by the world’s major powers. And the risk factors include not just traditional multinational conflicts, but also the internal instability in separate states, especially when we talk about nations located at the intersections of major states’ geopolitical interests, or on the border of cultural, historical, and economic civilizational continents.
Vladimir Putin's speech at the recent Valdai conference was something else.
Once again he proves his bona fides as man who thinks history is watching him. (a luxury afforded to dicatorial states as there are no checks and/or balances to undermine his will)
He senses weakness in political will and continues to exploit this vacuum by providing a rational, open, caring, and eminently civilized voice of international cooperation. An interesting tact. But let us not avert our eyes from his goal, which is of course a neo Russian empire.
The speech itself and exerpts.
At the same time, the formation of a so-called polycentric world (I would also like to draw attention to this, colleagues) in and of itself does not improve stability; in fact, it is more likely to be the opposite. The goal of reaching global equilibrium is turning into a fairly difficult puzzle, an equation with many unknowns.
So, what is in store for us if we choose not to live by the rules – even if they may be strict and inconvenient – but rather live without any rules at all? And that scenario is entirely possible; we cannot rule it out, given the tensions in the global situation. Many predictions can already be made, taking into account current trends, and unfortunately, they are not optimistic. If we do not create a clear system of mutual commitments and agreements, if we do not build the mechanisms for managing and resolving crisis situations, the symptoms of global anarchy will inevitably grow.
Today, we already see a sharp increase in the likelihood of a whole set of violent conflicts with either direct or indirect participation by the world’s major powers. And the risk factors include not just traditional multinational conflicts, but also the internal instability in separate states, especially when we talk about nations located at the intersections of major states’ geopolitical interests, or on the border of cultural, historical, and economic civilizational continents.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Oil
Being the marginal monopoly producer of oil has its benefits, but also has its own masters. Saudi Arabia cut production not so much as a reaction to demand, but as placation for its Western masters and their massive investment in oil that is far more difficult to reach.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Even the slower uptake websites have noticed...
...what readers here knew years ago.
Chinese banks are seeing the writing on the wall in terms of the debt they've accumulated, and they are taking measures to protect themselves.
The Bank of China is planning the biggest sale of shares ever — $6.5 billion to offshore investors,Bloomberg says. It's all in an effort to create a capital cushion.
China's banking system has piled up the most bad loans of any time since the financial crisis, and the banks are preparing for the moment those debts collapse.
Especially in corporate and property sectors, things are looking dire.
Let's tackle the corporate sector first. Last month, Morgan Stanley released a report saying China's corporates took on 5.4 times more leverage than ever before in the first half of 2014, bringing leverage up to levels unseen since 2006.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
That little itching feeling...
...so many weak links in the cellulose that comprises the Paper Dragon.
Good luck recycling this particular component.
Pro-democracy protests expanded in Hong Kong on Monday, a day after demonstrators upset over Beijing's decision to limit political reforms defied onslaughts of tear gas and appeals from Hong Kong's top leader to go home.
Good luck recycling this particular component.
Pro-democracy protests expanded in Hong Kong on Monday, a day after demonstrators upset over Beijing's decision to limit political reforms defied onslaughts of tear gas and appeals from Hong Kong's top leader to go home.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Crimea...
...has always been the target, and with it, control of the Black Sea. The Great Game is upon us once again, with the usual players (Anglo-Saxons, Russians, Asians, Arabs, etc.) occupying the chess board.
Its only a couple moves for Russia to take Istanbul and full control of its previous central Asian empire. These are not outrageous goals for a newly competitive Russia, nor are they out of reach for a man who clearly believes history is on his side.
Recall that Moscow is the Third Rome. And I also note this article. It appears as though Putin has chosen his ideological lever. Constantinople (and its significance in the Orthodox church) is the glittering prize just south of Crimea in the Black Sea.
We can assume increased instability in Turkey, backed by Russia. Putin and Russia are in an excellent position. All that is required for Western concession are promises to assist in the organized Fundamentalist Muslim threat...which, conveniently, also exists in Turkey.
The U.S. has sent Destroyers to the region of a class that has little to no capacity to strike ground targets. This speaks volumes to the priority targets amongst the players. Its not Ukraine, but the Black Sea that is in play.
Its only a couple moves for Russia to take Istanbul and full control of its previous central Asian empire. These are not outrageous goals for a newly competitive Russia, nor are they out of reach for a man who clearly believes history is on his side.
Recall that Moscow is the Third Rome. And I also note this article. It appears as though Putin has chosen his ideological lever. Constantinople (and its significance in the Orthodox church) is the glittering prize just south of Crimea in the Black Sea.
We can assume increased instability in Turkey, backed by Russia. Putin and Russia are in an excellent position. All that is required for Western concession are promises to assist in the organized Fundamentalist Muslim threat...which, conveniently, also exists in Turkey.
The U.S. has sent Destroyers to the region of a class that has little to no capacity to strike ground targets. This speaks volumes to the priority targets amongst the players. Its not Ukraine, but the Black Sea that is in play.
Scotland
Wether or not 4 million people decide to collectively re-program their "nationality" is not so interesting as the current global trend towards increased autonomy and the return of "sovereignity", which has been under siege for the last 40 years.
Globalization has been wonderful for commerce, but unfortunately, when you scale power to global levels the opportunity for corruption and control becomes too intoxicating. What we are witnessing is the concept of subsidiarity writ large. It is beneficial to have globally connected commerce, but the power structures that follow this phenomenon have proven to be less useful.
This is a simple re-pricing of information. Modern goverments would have you believe that smaller countries will not enjoy the benefits of large-scale information matrixes (like currencies, regulation, courts, etc.). This is of course nonsense as most of these matrixes have become increasingly cheap due to technological advances. What real disadvantages would Scotland suffer if they vote for independence? Would they somehow be untethered from the entire world and set adrift at the mercy of the elements like the Pequod? Or will they be able to chart their own course and bestride the world on their own power like the Nautilus? Predictably, the owners of this current global system are concerned.
The desire to de-scale governmental power is entirely logical, and in this blogger's opinion, necessary in order to prevent more violent means of re-pricing information.
Globalization has been wonderful for commerce, but unfortunately, when you scale power to global levels the opportunity for corruption and control becomes too intoxicating. What we are witnessing is the concept of subsidiarity writ large. It is beneficial to have globally connected commerce, but the power structures that follow this phenomenon have proven to be less useful.
This is a simple re-pricing of information. Modern goverments would have you believe that smaller countries will not enjoy the benefits of large-scale information matrixes (like currencies, regulation, courts, etc.). This is of course nonsense as most of these matrixes have become increasingly cheap due to technological advances. What real disadvantages would Scotland suffer if they vote for independence? Would they somehow be untethered from the entire world and set adrift at the mercy of the elements like the Pequod? Or will they be able to chart their own course and bestride the world on their own power like the Nautilus? Predictably, the owners of this current global system are concerned.
The desire to de-scale governmental power is entirely logical, and in this blogger's opinion, necessary in order to prevent more violent means of re-pricing information.
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